bcs

Several years ago, I heard a presentation from Laurence Fink, the mastermind behind the asset management giant, BlackRock (NYSE: BLK). At the time, he gave some frank advice; that is, he warned that investors needed to be very cautious.

Of course, it was spot-on (and saved me lots of money). And, I'm sure Fink's investors also appreciated the counsel.

Well, this week BlackRock became the king of asset management because of its $13.5 billion acquisition of Barclays Global Investors (NYSE: BCS). In all, the assets under management will now amount to $2.8 trillion.

U.S. stock futures edged slightly lower Friday morning as investors were looking direction ahead of a key consumer sentiment report. The bond market remained in focus as yields continued to fall. A $13.5 billion deal between Barlacys (NYSE: BCS) and Blackrock (NYSE: BLK) that makes the latter the world's largest money manager.

Two main economic reports will be reported this morning: export/import prices for May at 8:30 AM, and June Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment at 10:00 AM. Economists expct confidence among U.S. consumers probably rose for a fourth straight month in June to 69.5 from 68.7 in May. This would be further indication that the worst recession in at least five decades may end this year.

A year ago, a variety of sovereign wealth funds pumped billions into financial institutions. While the results have been mixed, there are still some clear winners.

An example is the £7 billion investment in Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) last October, so as to stave off a takeover from the UK authorities. One of the investors included PCP Gulf Invest 1 Ltd., which is part of the sprawling empire of Sheikh Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

Well, he has decided to unload about 1.3 billion shares, which will translate into a near doubling of the original investment (this is according to the Wall Street Journal, a paid publication). Yes, in light of the large amounts, it's a stunning investment.

Analyst upgrades:

• Stephens upgraded Arris (NASDAQ: ARRS) to Overweight from Equal Weight following the company's Q1 results and raised its target on shares to $15 from $8.
  
• Goldman upgraded Goodyear Tire (NYSE: GT) to Neutral from Sell and raised their target to $11 from $7 citing better earnings prospects and stabilizing volumes.
  
• KeyBanc upgraded Parkway Properties (NYSE: PKY) to Hold from Underweight citing the company's improved balance sheet and valuation.
• Digital River (NASDAQ: DRIV) was raised to Perform from Underperform at Oppenheimer.
  
• Barclays (NYSE: BCS) was raised to Buy from Sell at Royal Bank of Scotland.
  
• First Potomac (NYSE: FPO) was upgraded at RBC Capital to Sector Perform from Underperform.

Analyst upgrades:

• Goldman upgraded Gerdau AmeriSteel (NYSE: GNA) to Buy from Neutral and has a $5.50 target on shares. Shares were upgraded due to the potential impact from infrastructure spending. Note that Goldman downgraded Steel Dynamics (NYSE: STLD) and Olympic Steel (NYSE: ZEUS) to Neutral from Buy.
  
• Banc of America/Merrill upgraded Coca-Cola Enterprises (NYSE: CCE) to Buy from Neutral and raised the price target to $18 from $15. The firm the strong Q1 report gives them greater confidence in shares.
  
• Roth Capital upgraded Halozyme (NASDAQ: HALO) to Buy from Hold due to increased clarity into Roche programs, the discontinuation of the chemophase program, and progress on insulin delivery.
• American Movil (NYSE: AMX) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan and to Hold from Sell at Citigroup.
  
• Barclays (NYSE: BCS) and Lloyds TSB Group (NYSE: LYG) were upgraded at HSBC to Overweight from Neutral.

Analyst upgrades:

• Royal Bank of Scotland upgraded shares of Vodafone (NYSE: VOD) to Buy from Hold to reflect the company's dividend yield.
  
• JMP Securities expects HFF Inc. (NYSE: HF) to benefit from increased U.S. commercial real estate sales and mortgage volumes. Shares were upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform. The firm has a $5 target on shares.
  
• Oppenheimer upgraded Church & Dwight (NYSE: CHD) to Outperform from Perform as it believes Church & Dwight's value-oriented portfolio should continue to benefit from the consumer trade-down and that concerns over distribution are overblown. The firm set a $62 price on shares.
• Regeneron (NASDAQ: REGN) was upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Piper Jaffray.
  
• Burlington Northern (NYSE: BNI) was raised to Buy from Neutral at Goldman.
• AMB Property (NYSE: AMB) was lifted to Neutral from Underperform at Banc of America/Merrill.

Barclays (NYSE: BCS - option chain) shares are headed higher today on reports that the company has been determined unlikely to need more capital to survive the current credit crisis(subscription required). Regulators have been performing a stress test on Barclays and this result is pretty much as good as anyone could have hoped. If you think that the stock won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on BCS.

BCS opened this morning at $8.75. So far today the stock has hit a low of $8.67 and a high of $10.10. As of 12:50, BCS is trading at $9.88, up $1.73 (21.2%). The chart for BcS looks neutral and S&P gives BCS a 3 STARS (out of 5) hold ranking.

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says picking stocks -- or worse, picking a bottom -- remains a dangerous activity.

Sometimes it is so bad that it is BAD! Don't laugh at that seeming bit of counterintuitive logic. Every investment professional knows that because of the way economic cycles and central banks work, you are often looking for signs of such stress and negativity that it is so bad it is GOOD because of what the banks can do and what a bottom looks like.

This time it hasn't worked out that way. This time, what's bad is bad and getting worse. This weekend, David Carr in The New York Times wrote an excellent piece about the mistake of looking for a silver lining, something that news media does.

Barclays (NYSE: BCS) posted earnings that would be the envy of almost any other global bank. In the process, it gave the troubled banking industry some hope that the future will not be one of ongoing losses stretching well into this year, if not into next.

The bank's second half surprised analysts. According to Bloomberg, "It looks like a pretty good underlying performance and start to 2009," said Michael Trippitt, a London-based analyst at Oriel Securities Ltd., who has an `add' rating on Barclays." A lot of the improvement came because many of Barclays large consumer and business service divisions did well when the effects of toxic asset where taken out.

Nissan Motor Co. (NASDAQ: NSANY) reported a $904 million quarterly loss and said it expects this year to be its first annual loss in nine years. Nissan is cutting 20,000 jobs, or 8.5% of its workforce. NSANY shares declined over 6.5% in premarket trade.

Barclays PLC (NYSE: BCS) reported Monday that its net profit for 2008 fell just 1% after several major one-off gains helped compensate for over 8 billion pounds ($11.8 billion) of write-downs. The bank's balance sheet, meanwhile, ballooned 67% to 2.05 trillion pounds. Pretax profit for the year dropped 14% to 6.08 billion pounds, well ahead of analyst estimates. Barclays said it will resume dividend payments in the second half of the year. Shares in Barclays soared over 12% in premarket trade.

Just as we were getting used to write about how bad trading has been, today came around and was positive throughout. The housing data from existing home sales sent the markets up, despite mostly dismal news from the industrials. Bank stocks had yet another up day.

Here are today's unofficial closing bell levels:
Top Analyst Upgrades
Top Analyst Downgrades

TheStreet.com's Jim Cramer says companies saddled with high debt loads can be found in every sector in every business.

Overleveraged. Too much debt. Need to pay down debt. How many times have you read that story?

You read it so much because it plays out every day and plays havoc with stock picking almost every time you see a savory stock down on its luck.

This weekend, as I went through the charts, I was amazed at how low some stocks have gone, stocks that I would normally say to just take a flyer on, but turn out to have so much debt, short- and long-term, that they are just too dangerous.

Consider these perhaps poisonous morsels:

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) is recently at $31.88 in pre-open trading, below its close of $35.66. CAT says 2009 will be a very tough year. CAT reported Q4 sales and revenues rose 14% from 2007. CAT February option implied volatility of 76 is above its 26-week average of 55, according to Track Data, suggesting larger price movement.

Barclays (NYSE: BCS) is recently trading at $4.50 in pre-open trading, above its close of $3.07. BSC said it will avoid further capital increases as revenue grows. BCS overall option implied volatility of 80 is below its 26-week average of 92, according to Track Data, suggesting decreasing price movement.

Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) closed at $39.58. Gold is recently up 1.09% to $907.50 according to Bloomberg. ABX is scheduled to report Q4 EPS in late February. ABX March option implied volatility of 72 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price movement.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) announced a deal to acquire rival Wyeth (NYSE: WYE) for $68 billion, or $50.19 a share, a 15% premium to Friday's close of $43.74. This cash-and-stock deal is the largest in the drug sector since 2000 and many see it as a precursor to a flourishing M&A season as the credit markets are slowly starting to improve. Pfizer also reported a 90% profit drop for the fourth quarter due to charges. PFE shares declined 3.4% in premarket trading, while WYE shares gained nearly 5%.

Barclays (NYSE: BCS) shares surged in London Monday after the firm reassured investors in a letter to shareholders it didn't need more capital. But France's BNP Paribas said it would take more cash from the government following a 1.4 billion euro ($1.8 billion) loss in the latest quarter. Finally, ING (NYSE: ING), the Dutch financial services firm, also received government aid as it is expected to announce it had a net loss of 3.3 billion euros in the fourth quarter, that it would cut 7,000 jobs, and that its CEO would step down. BCS shares gained over 44% in premarket trading and ING's gained over 19%.

Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT) and McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) are two Dow components set to report earnings this morning. CAT said its fourth-quarter profit fell to $661 million, or $1.08 a share, from $975 million, or $1.50 a share, in the year-ago quarter. Revenue rose 6% to $12.9 billion. For 2009, Caterpillar gave a a much lower guidance than analysts had expected, $2.50 vs. $4.35 EPS. CAT also said it would slash 20,000 jobs. CAT shares fell over 11% in premarket trading.
Meanwhile, MCD delivered what at first glance seems to be better-than-expected earnings of 87 cents vs. 84 cents. It even plans to invest $2.1 billion of capital to open about 1,000 new McDonald's restaurants.

American Express (NYSE: AXP) is the third Dow component tor report quarterly results after the close of trading today and is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 20 cents a share.

IBM (NYSE: IBM), the tech bellwether, reported quarterly results Tuesday after the close, surprising analyst with a 12% rise in profit. It also forecast 2009 earnings of at least $9.20 a share, compared to analyst expectations around $8.70 a share. Shares were up about 3.9% in premarket trading.

BHP Biliton (NYSE: BHP), the largest mining company in the world, said it would lay off 6% of its global workforce or 6,000 workers as a result of production cuts. Around 550 of them will be in the U.S. Shares declined nearly a percent in premarket trading.

Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC), the Swedish telecom equipment maker, announced a 31% profit drop and a 23% surge in sales. It also said it would cut 5,000 jobs in the attempt to save $1.2 billion in costs in 2009. Shares gained nearly 13.5% in premarket trading.

Many companies are due to report results on Wednesday: AMR Corp. (NYSE: AMR), UAL Corp. (NASDAQ: UAUA), BlackRock (NYSE: BLK) and Coach Inc. (NYSE: COH) and after the close, Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and eBay Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY).

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) said it expects to earn $1.06 to $1.35 per share on sales from $9 billion to $10 billion in the first quarter, but analysts seem to expect more, estimating income of $1.39 per share on $9.74 billion in revenue, according to Thomson Reuters. Meanwhile, U.S. regulators are examining Apple's disclosures about Jobs' health problems to ensure investors weren't misled, according to Bloomberg sources. Shares gained about 1.3% in premarket trading.